Forsskålsymposiet 2020: “The future of peace and democracy - what can we know?”

Datum & tid: 26 november, kl. 13:15-16:00
Plats: Zoom:
Arrangör: Uppsala Forum, Juridiska institutionen och Uppsala universitet

2020 års Forsskålföreläsare är Håvard Hegre, Dag Hammarskjöld Professor of Peace and Conflict Research vid institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning, samt projektledare för ViEWS - Violence Early-Warning System. Hans föreläsning har titeln “The future of peace and democracy - what can we know?”

After the end of the Cold War, the world went through a long period with a clear decline in the number of armed conflicts and the introduction of democratic institutions in many countries. The most recent year, however, this trend has turned. A small number of very lethal wars have broken out, and democracy has seen a decline in many countries. Will this negative trend continue into the future, or will the world take up again a development towards a more peaceful and democratic world? In this lecture, I will talk about some research projects that investigate these questions and present some scenarios for how the world will look at the end of the 21st century. Central in this work are five ’Shared Socio-economic Pathways’ that the climate research community use as future scenarios or storylines. I will use and discuss the projections for global population, education, and income that researchers have developed based on these scenarios, and present similar projections for how much internal armed conflict there will be according to a reasonable model, as well as some preliminary results for the democraticness of the world. Even under the most pessimistic SSPs, there are reasons for some optimism with respect to peace and democracy. I will discuss the data material that we may use to draw conclusions, as well as look at the assumptions required to believe these forecasts.